When Did the Tech "vibe shift" towards the Right start?

Data Analyzing All In Podcast as a Representative Sample

Update:

Jason Calacanis on Startups

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I used to be an avid listener of The All-In Podcast, which was launched in March 2020 during the early days of the pandemic and features tech industry multi-millionaires like Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks, and David Friedberg.

The podcast initially focused on startups, venture capital, and tech trends, but has evolved to include more political discussions, with some observers noting a rightward shift in perspective.

My observation was The hosts (apart from David Sacks) started as typical tech industry Democrats—socially liberal, fiscally moderate, and ideologically opposed to Trump. However, as I followed them, it increasingly felt to me that the podcast gradually shifted rightward and eventually toward Trump.

I wanted to see if this observation was supported by data. LLMs are amazing, so I thought, why not use them to analyze the episode transcripts to get a data-backed understanding of this. The LLM evaluated the podcast transcript and graded the sentiment of each of the hosts towards:

1. Democrats (0-5 scale)

2. Republicans (0-5 scale)

3. Trump (0-5 scale)

After aggregating, what the data showed was that the above hypothesis is largely correct.

Pro-Right Vibe Shift Began in Late 2021, With Democratic Sentiment Plummeting in Early 2023

The data does show that the podcast was largely anti-Trump in 2020, became pretty anti-Trump after January 6th, followed by a period of neutrality (with equal critique of both Republicans and Democrats) until the end of 2021. Since then, the podcast has been largely favorable toward Republicans and most unfavorable toward Democrats (check out the plot below). From early 2023 onward, there has been a period of sustained negativity toward Democrats and more positive sentiments toward Republicans.

David Sacks: Consistently Aligned with Republican Positions

Unsurprisingly, David Sacks is by far the most favorable toward Republicans and also the most scathing toward Democrats, as indicated by his partisan gap. Jason appears to be the most favorable toward Democrats, though not by a significant margin. This is largely unsurprising, given that David Sacks has been strongly opposed to Ukraine policy and is a well-known conservative who has hosted fundraisers for DeSantis and Trump.

Shifting Sentiment Toward Trump: Analysis of Coverage Trends

The data indicates that Trump received more negative coverage compared to other Republicans initially, but sentiment analysis shows this gap narrowed significantly by May 2024. Following critical coverage after January 6th, the hosts' commentary toward Trump gradually became more neutral over time. But by May 2024, he’d closed the gap entirely, matching Republican favorability. Two key inflection points:

1. DeSantis’ Exit: When DeSantis dropped out of the presidential race, Trump became the GOP’s de facto leader.

2. Biden Contrast: Hosts increasingly framed Trump as a “lesser evil” amid critiques of Biden’s age and economic policies.

A word about Methodology

1. It’s important to clarify that the sentiment scores are directional and not absolute. They are derived from an LLM’s analysis of the podcast transcripts and should be interpreted as such. The scores themselves don’t carry inherent meaning but serve as indicators of relative sentiment over time.

2. All of the above reflects my personal observations and interpretations

3. I do think there’s a lot of other stuff I can do with data and I am hoping to do more analysis about this!